Why the next few weeks will be the most crucial stretch for WVU Football (2024)

If you think you know what West Virginia University's roster is going to be like next year, you're likely wrong. Our Transfer and Scholarship Tracker lays out the position-by-position breakdown and gives the eligibility for every player that could return next season. That should give you a pretty good idea.... but that will just be a general overview of the situation. And so much is going to change in the next few weeks, as we find out who will trulymake up the group of difference makers between now and mid-January (for the most part).

Why do we say that? Because, well, the transfer portal is about to open, and players will be leaving the program at the same time that the coaching staff brings in dozens of others for official visits to replace them.

That's the first variable -who is going to leave the WVU Football program?Sure, there are a few pretty obvious candidates of players that will find their way out of Morgantown, into the transfer portal, and at a new (likely lower level) school next fall, doing so in the search of playing time. But there are also the stunners.

Look back between the 2021-2022 seasons (from here on referred to as the 2021 offseason). Linebacker Josh Chandler-Semedo shocked everyone by announcing that he was coming back for another year. A pleasant surprise.... until he realized Lee Kpogba was going to take his playing time, and *poof* all that build up for his grand return was gone just a couple months later as he entered the transfer portal.

Wide receiver Winston Wright made several posts about how he was excited to be back for another year at WVU.... only to delete those comments and enter the portal. Defensive lineman Jordan Jefferson (after the 2022 season) gave no indication that he was going to leave before entering the portal out of nowhere. The same goes for Akheem Mesidor, who shocked the WVU coaches with his claims of feeling unsafe and impending departure that Neal Brown held an impromptu meeting with the media to give his story. For most, the coaches just avoid talking about it.

This is my way of saying - prepare yourself for more of the same this offseason. It's unlikely it will be as egregious as some of these other examples, especially now that WVU is behind the Country Roads Trust and the NIL plan to help retention (and the eight win season with hope for next year). However, the list of players that left while expected to be starters or key contributors the following season is quite lengthy - Jordan Jefferson, Kaden Prather, Reese Smith, Mumu Bin-Wahad, Akheem Mesidor, Nicktroy Fortune, Josh Chandler, Daryl Porter, Jackie Matthews,and Winston Wright are just some of them. That doesn't include guys who had a COVID year of eligibility remaining and moved on (like Taijh Alston).

The second variable isWVU changed the way they target transfers, and it's working.I've already broken all of this down in my Deep Dive from earlier this month. Click THIS LINK if you want to read about it at length, but a quick summary: Neal Brown said that the Mountaineers changed who they targeted and how they evaluated the transfer portal. The result was that WVU found more contributors/starters in the transfer portal this time around than last and those that were contributors/starters were also better during the snaps that they were on the field. In total, ten of WVU's transfer adds were part of the two deep, with two others that were part of the two-deep but got hurt and had their season end early.

Let's say that the Mountaineers add ten transfers in the offseason (lower than the last two years, but the roster might be healthier than it has been since Neal Brown arrived). At the same rate, that would mean WVU is adding seven or eight starters/contributors via the transfer portal this offseason. That's.... significant.

Then there's the third variable -WVU bringing in talented high school/JUCO products.For the purpose of this story, we'll focus solely on the guys being brought in with this class. Not guys who redshirted this past season and will take on bigger roles next year (a la Hudson Clement). But.... look at West Virginia's 2023 recruiting class. Many people reading this story right now complained that it wasn't good enough, that it was a step backward. Except Rodney Gallagher was starting by year end. Josiah Trotter would have started if not for an injury. Jahiem White was the best playmaker WVU has had in years. Traylon Ray was starting by years end. Ben Cutter was starting by years end. That's a fourth of the class being starting material right off the bat for an eight-win team.

Was that a one-off? No. CJ Donaldson was a revelation last year. Lee Kpogba led the team in tackles. Ollie Straw was the team's starting punter. Several others (like Hershey McLaurin, Jacolby Spells, and Raleigh Collins) saw significant playing time and/or started at least one game.

West Virginia has a similarly-rated class so far this year, and the Mountaineers are targeting a couple of junior college players - including former linebacker Keaton Thomas - to step right in and contribute next season.

So.... are there some concrete numbers we can look at for this? How about productivity turnover?

In 2023......

• 43.5% of RB rushing yards were new
• 55.3% of WR receiving yards were new
• 99.5% of TE receiving yards were new
• 35.1% of tackles on defense were new
• 32.7% of sacks on defense were new
• 51.9% of pass breakups on defense were new
• 55.6% of interceptions on defense were new
• 96.8% of placekicking attempts were new

Earlier this season, Neal Brown raised some eyebrows when he said a third of the roster will turnover in most years - from graduation to transfers to retirement. Here's the thing, though. He's not wrong. And how WVU replaces that turnoverwill be at the forefront of the conversation over the next several weeks.

Upcoming Dates to Know:

• Friday, December 1st - beginning of the new contact period
• Monday, December 4th - The Transfer Portal officially opens
• Sunday, December 17th -one-day quiet period (visitors may wrap up theirvisits to campus)
• Monday, December 18th - beginning of the dead period
• Wednesday, December 20th to Friday, December 22nd - early signing period
• Tuesday, January 2nd -Final day of the transfer portal being open until after spring ball
• Friday, January 12th - contact period reopens
• Sunday, February 4th - one-day quiet period (visitors may wrap up their visits to campus)
• Monday, February 5th - beginning of the dead period
• Wednesday February 7th to April 1st - regular signing period
• Tuesday, April 16th to Tuesday, April 30th - second transfer portal window